Let’s Debate: Are Penalty Kicks Unfair?
I'm just sayin'. There is data that points to it.
Every soccer fan has experienced THAT sinking feeling in the stomach when the opposition has the ball in your goal box, surrounded by defenders, nowhere to go, and then all of a sudden a foot comes in and down he/she goes. The whistle blows and the ref points to the spot. Let’s debate: Are penalty kicks unfair?
Are PK’s unfair?
We have so much data available in today’s game. We can actually prove that penalties are in fact a little bit unfair.
There’s a metric that is designed to measure the probability of a shot resulting in a goal. It’s called xG or Expected Goals.
xG on Penalty Kicks
In the Premier League, data shows that you’d be expected to score a penalty kick around 80% of the time from 12 yards away.
xG in Open Play
In open play, there are multiple factors that determine the probability of scoring a goal, but one main one is shot location. The closer you are to the goal the higher the xG.
xG gives a probability of only 60% INSIDE the goalies six yard box to score. The farther back the lower the probability.
A penalty is taken from 12 yards away and is an area that would be a 20% xG zone in open play. Remember that it’s 80% xG from 12 yards away on a penalty kick?
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The Difference
A majority of WHERE the penalty kicks given (where a player is fouled) in the premier league during a 10 year span between 2011-2022 was in an area near the 20% xG open play location.
This means you are 4x more likely to score a goal on a penalty than you are from open play roughly in the same area of the field.
Let’s Debate
Are penalty kicks unfair? If I am about to shoot the ball in open play from 12 yards away I am given only a 20% chance to score. If I get fouled near the penalty kick spot then I now have an 80% chance to score.
Are there any alternatives? Should we keep it as is? Let’s talk about it!
